rider Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 52 minutes ago, Noz said: £20k in cash. Where should I put it? I've been buying majorly into gold and rear earth metal mining stocks and tobacco. Also been buying physical gold. Heading into a recession pundits always rate food, essential household products, phrama and utility stocks as the best insulated grouping to ride out a storm. All tech stock, that includes the likes of Tesla continue to take a beating. Other than that, 2 billet 2JZ blocks could work. Though who would risk running one of those up to 1000hp? If I was throwing £20k of my own money into an investment I'd go for a stock ISA if I didn't have one already; seeing its a £20k limit on that class of investment. Hargreaves Lansdown are the best online investment research portal I've used and I've used quite a few. You can fill your boots with funds, ISA's or equities there to your hearts content. But the Stock or Cash ISA is the most tax efficient means to invest that specific amount of money. Only bettered potentially by a private pension contribution where the government will add tax relief to the lump sum, it'd be locked up until you are 55 though and could be eligible for tax when drawn upon. It all comes down to what are the goals, short term, long term, growth, security etc. etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, rider said: I've been buying majorly into gold and rear earth metal mining stocks and tobacco. Also been buying physical gold. Heading into a recession pundits always rate food, essential household products, phrama and utility stocks as the best insulated grouping to ride out a storm. All tech stock, that includes the likes of Tesla continue to take a beating. Other than that, 2 billet 2JZ blocks could work. Though who would risk running one of those up to 1000hp? If I was throwing £20k of my own money into an investment I'd go for a stock ISA if I didn't have one already; seeing its a £20k limit on that class of investment. Hargreaves Lansdown are the best online investment research portal I've used and I've used quite a few. You can fill your boots with funds, ISA's or equities there to your hearts content. But the Stock or Cash ISA is the most tax efficient means to invest that specific amount of money. Only bettered potentially by a private pension contribution where the government will add tax relief to the lump sum, it'd be locked up until you are 55 though and could be eligible for tax when drawn upon. It all comes down to what are the goals, short term, long term, growth, security etc. etc. ISA too slow. Don't need security. Have a well paid job now. Too young to worry about risk, but don't want to be foolish of course. 1 year ideally. Want to buy a new house early 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rider Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, Noz said: 1 year ideally. Want to buy a new house early 2024. 1 year isn't really an investment term, it more a holding period with the property purchase being the actual investment. I'd go for a savings account (locked in for one year bonds attracting 4%) to ensure your money is still there in a years time. Anything else would be just a punt over a short time period, which may as well then go towards BTC. There is nothing else that you can reliably forecast today will yield more than 4%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Yup. Short term punt was the idea really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tayr Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, Noz said: Yup. Short term punt was the idea really. casino then tbh, or buy and sell some bits Edited December 22, 2022 by tayr (see edit history) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, tayr said: casino then tbh, or buy and sell some bits Let's do it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) On 8/11/2022 at 1:51 PM, Marty said: Still eyeing EOY for final capitulation, whether that is a equal low, higher low, or more towards $12kish, who knows, we'll have to just see how things pan out. Been a while since i've updated my thoughts. End of year was interesting to say the least, all the big players rekt, ftx a complete shitshow - i hope no one lost money on there, i honestly didn't see that one coming. Made for a good capitulation event though, and well, it lined up perfectly with the 4 year cycle low being at the end of the year, funny how that works hey. Good call by Rider early Nov saying btc was looking like a good buy Personally, i think the bottom is in, for this year at least, and we have a nice bit of deviation in price action on the chart to work with like we did at the previous cycle low,(red box) we shouldn't see prices below $18.1 again, easy stop loss. I didn't catch the bottom, my average is ~$16.5k, i got stopped out the previous trade at $22k. Have my new stops at 18 and we'll just see how they go. Added ghost bars to the chart for an idea of what the price action may look like - it's a copy paste of 2019, but who knows, halving is mid 24, 6 figure BTC 9months later if cycle repeats like it has the previous few times. But maybe it's all going to zero this time and this is a bull trap. It will one day I like to use the Cm ultimate moving average indicator on higher time frame charts, if it's green and price action is above it, hodl. Not financial advice and risk only what you can afford to lose https://www.tradingview.com/x/qvv4XBCc/ Edited January 20, 2023 by Marty (see edit history) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Tesla up 58% since the 6th Jan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rider Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 There is apparently a lot of pumping going on in tech equities so that rich people can get a whole lot richer on very short term investments. The boom is reported to likely turn into an as fast bust as these really rich people take their I've just got a whole lot richer profits leaving the smucks (the poor people) that ride the top of the waves picking up the tab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 (edited) On 1/20/2023 at 11:42 AM, Marty said: I like to use the Cm ultimate moving average indicator on higher time frame charts, if it's green and price action is above it, hodl. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qvv4XBCc/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZywsIjZU/ Same chart, 3months on and btc up 50% and at the top of the range. Price still above green line, so hodl. A lot of price action happened in this low $30k area in the previous bull market, making it a tough nut to crack on the way back up. Unlikely it breaks first time, ideal scenario is btc goes sideways for a while whist ALT coins play catch up. Daily 50ma is at $25.9k and rising, the daily candle closing below that would be first sign of trouble. Still think this is an echobubble similar to 2019, see what happens hey. Edited April 14, 2023 by Marty (see edit history) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dnk Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 That was a good day to say the least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 (edited) On 1/20/2023 at 11:42 AM, Marty said: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qvv4XBCc/ On 4/14/2023 at 1:26 PM, Marty said: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZywsIjZU/ Update on the chart. We broke above the range high of $30k, i like that. interested to see what happens next, whether its an echo of previous pre halving price action. Keeping it simple, we don't want to close a weekly candle under 30k and end up back in the previous range, as long as we stay above we're golden Btc ETF coming, likely Jan, hard to know what happens. If i was to take a punt, it'll be pump and then nuke. ie, 47 then 27 . current chart, exact one as the ones above, with updated price action. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qKgUuvnI/ Edited November 16, 2023 by Marty (see edit history) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 11/16/2023 at 1:12 PM, Marty said: Btc ETF coming, likely Jan, hard to know what happens. If i was to take a punt, it'll be pump and then nuke. ie, 47 then 27 . Etf approved, btc hit 48k. It's easy this trading lark Needs to cool off now, 27k might be wishful thinking but i wouldn't be surprised to see md to low 30s over the next couple of months. Btc halving is in april. I expect the next cycle top in ~Oct'25 assuming the same pattern as the previous few cycles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Good observations, thanks for the run through! I'm hoping to see BTC take some dominance back in the coming months so that's my main priority for now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Well, this time is indeed different. Btc at all time high, great stuff, but not what was expected for this point in the cycle. All previous cycles we've had a pre halving high - that should have been 48k this time, then a period of consolidation into halving, and lastly a run to all time high after halving, peaking roughly a year and a half after halving. Not this time We haven't even got to the halving and we've blown past all time high. Suppose now we have the ETFs gobbling up all the btc the demand is greatly increased, compared to previous cycles, where it was just a bunch of degens playing a game of hot potato. Cycles are still cycles though. So going forward what can we expect? Looks to me like this is one of two things, a left translated cycle, or the fabled supercycle. I think this is likely the first, a left translated, you're best off googling the meaning, but basically it's pretty ferocious, ends much sooner and we have a longer bear market afterwards - blow of top by the end of this year, $150-250k btc and then 2 and a half year bear. The supercycle lasts around the same as a normal cycle, ending q4 25, but makes all previous cycles looks like minor blips on the chart, the bear will be long and rough after a supercycle too. At this point, unless you've got a decent quantity of btc, you're honestly better off being balls deep in alts. Btc is too expensive for the normies now, as they flood in, they're going to be buying alts. Make no mistake, this is a bullmarket. Dips, even very aggressive ones, are gifts and not where you panic sell. This is likely the last cycle for a while, don't fcuk it up We'll reassess in a few months, but the focus now is taking profits towards the end of the year and adding to positions in the periods of heavy selling before then. Happy to hear other peoples thoughts on this? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 On 1/15/2024 at 7:39 AM, Style said: Good observations, thanks for the run through! I'm hoping to see BTC take some dominance back in the coming months so that's my main priority for now The dom chart is a good metric, most don't like it but it seems to work quite well, i use it to shift positions around. I'm not sure what happens, but i think alts are the best play probably, even if btc outperforms in certain periods, alts will over perform during the periods of btc consolidation. I don't really see btc dom going much higher but i'm good with up or down as i have good exposure to both btc and alts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Style Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, Marty said: The dom chart is a good metric, most don't like it but it seems to work quite well, i use it to shift positions around. I'm not sure what happens, but i think alts are the best play probably, even if btc outperforms in certain periods, alts will over perform during the periods of btc consolidation. I don't really see btc dom going much higher but i'm good with up or down as i have good exposure to both btc and alts. I'm not holding out for too much more but hoping to see one more leg up into the 60% dominance region before moving down into eth and alts. I'm not good enough at spotting random alts breaking out on their own so just hoping to follow the larger trend of liquidty flowing down from BTC once it consolidates. As far as the cycles go, I've always believed had it not been for COVID we probably wouldn't have had much a of a pull back around the last halving...if any. US elections at the end of this year could factor heavily into the narrative as well. If Trump (unfortunately) gets elected, I could see the US going risk on and pushing the run out further. Unemployment needs to keep itself in check and the inflation landings could do with being soft as well for this to play into BTC's hands. This might all be too little too late though if your left translated theory plays out I suppose! The world in general seems to be walking a bit of a tightrope still after COVID, Russia's invasion, Isreal/Palestine etc. Any more of those events could drastically alter the course of the pending cycle/top. Black swan events seem to be a dime a dozen just now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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