View Full Version : What is the probability of winning 250k on Deal or no deal
Underworld
15-11-06, 20:06
Right me and my girlfriend are having a big fight over the probability of winning the 250k on deal or no deal.
So guys what is it?
what is it, what are the rules?
1 in whatever the amount of boxes are. If you're the one picked. Which are the same odds incidentally if you're picked to be out front.
It'd not down to probability. It's all the cosmos and the number and strategy. Yes, strategy. The bearded one knows his stuff. It ain't luck at all. No siree.
I think its fixed to a certain extent. The producers obviously know whats in each of the boxes, so when they pick someone "randomly" they know what potentially could be won. It became obvious to me on the birthday episode the other week when the person who was picked had the £250k in the box.
Im probably wrong, but I enjoy being cynical
Max Headroom
15-11-06, 20:14
You have a 1 in 22 chance of getting the 250K and a 1 in 22 chance of being picked
But is it 1 in 22 after the selection process etc??
Max Headroom
15-11-06, 20:31
But is it 1 in 22 after the selection process etc??
I would say yes :)
Lol I guess, but their isn't a 250k winner every 22 shows. Depends what you mean by the question. I took it as if you were to go on deal or no deal what are the chances you will actually walk away with 250k.
So its 1/22 x 1/22 ??
That's 22 squared = 484???
So its 1 in 484?
The chance of somebody winning it is very low because people don't have the nerve to go all the way. It would take a very brave person to continue when they are left with the last two boxes, one of which is 250k and the other is a much lower amount. If the other box was say 10,000 and the offer was say 90k I reckon probably 95% of people would take the £90,000
Unless somebody is left with the final two boxes being 100k and 250k and the offer is like 150k I can't see it ever happening.
its 1 in 22 chance that your box will be chsoen to have the 250 k then it is another 1 in 22 for you to be chosen to play the game.
Then isn't it dependant on where the box is as to what the probabilty is (whether the person has the box or not) ?
And of course as Jake says how big your danglers are :d
Underworld
15-11-06, 21:59
Nooooo lol i thought it was higher than that :P Damit, good thing i didnt bet dishes for a week!!
I thought it was 1/22 + 1/21 + 1/20 oh well ive never been good at maths !
BASHTHEBISHOP
15-11-06, 22:14
When you go along to the show, everyperson there has a go - i.e they are all selected in turn.
So you are back to just a 1 in 22 chance + how much bottle you got.
they are all selected in turn. They aren't selected in turn, they're selected randomly. You could be selected on your first appearance. Some folks have been waiting for 30+ shows before they get to play.
It's quite a boring show really because there's no skill involved at all. It's mainly a question of luck and partly having the nerve to continue if you're lucky enough to have some big value numbers left towards the end.
mikeyb10supra
15-11-06, 22:25
It's quite a boring show really because there's no skill involved at all. It's mainly a question of luck and partly having the nerve to continue if you're lucky enough to have some big value numbers left towards the end.
it makes me laugh when people go on there and say "ive got a method/strategy worked out"....HOW?!?!?! totally random and no possible way of knowing where anything is placed
it makes me laugh when people go on there and say "ive got a method/strategy worked out"....HOW?!?!?! totally random and no possible way of knowing where anything is placed
Its about playing the odds the same with cards and other games of that ilk, but as we all know odds are only part of the game :d
The UK version of Deal or No Deal is unadulterated crap done on an absolute shoestring. The US version is so much better in every way. Wish we could watch that over here.
:looney:
Well no, surely because it's not just about picking the right box, the offer could be 250k if you had silly high boxes left.
no chance...... its never gona happen
Some folks have been waiting for 30+ shows before they get to play.
That's something which has been bugging me. How do they get so much time off to stay at the hotel for days/weeks on end?
An article from the Guardian about Jon Ronson's behind the scenes trip to Deal or No Deal.
HERE (http://arts.guardian.co.uk/features/story/0,,1926143,00.html)
I just read the entire article. Man I NEED a job!!!!
Can anyone explain to me the actual idea? I see lots of boxes with money in them....what's the deal or no deal part of it?
Can anyone explain to me the actual idea? I see lots of boxes with money in them....what's the deal or no deal part of it?
I just started typing the answer and then realised how sad I sounded. The short story is you make a deal with the banker depending on how many red boxes you have left on the board compared to blue.
I started typing too... just watch it once and you'll understand, it's not easy to explain although it is simple... errr...
Exactly that! I tried to explain it to my brother and just ended up totally confusing him. To the point where he made up another gameshow in his head called 'speed boxes' where you just pick random boxes but you open them at speed, so there is less suspense and more gambling. :blink:
:rlol: I've just seen your post above, how bored are you?!
I tried to watch it once...just couldn't stand it. So red boxes are bad?
Underworld
16-11-06, 17:17
Lol. Basically its a game where you obviously want to get as much money as you can. You have 2 strategies of winning $$$. Either wait till the end and get that box or quit whilst your ahead and take an offer.
You choose a box per go, obviously if you pick a lot of reds at the start (higher numbers) your chances of winning a big prize reduces and so does the bankers offer. So basically ideal case scenario is where you go every round picking blues. Then you get to the end and have a 50/50 choice of 100k or 250k.
Underworld
16-11-06, 17:18
Don't worry I didnt undestand it at first. And I didn't understand the probability till yesterday when I was eating my own words from a bet with my girlfriend lol :( :( :(
CardiffSupra
16-11-06, 18:20
I won £150 on deal or no deal online. :D
They said on the news yesterday that somebody has just won the £250,000 on DOND. Apparently it won't be on TV till the new year though.
1 in 24 surely?
if theres 24 boxes that is.
So how exactly can you lose?
So how exactly can you lose?
Christ man, will you just watch the show?!
What and waste MY life?!! ;)
What and waste MY life?!! ;)
Yes, instead of ours. ;)
So how exactly can you lose?
http://www.channel4.com/money/ontv/deal_or_no_deal/rules.html
The programme is presented by Noel Edmonds, who has been one of Britain's most popular TV and Radio presenters for more than 30 years.
:rlol:
Think I get it now thanks Jake...you're way more helpful than the rest of 'em :)
Think I get it now thanks Jake...you're way more helpful than the rest of 'em :)
I think you'll find the word is tolerant. :p
They aren't selected in turn, they're selected randomly. You could be selected on your first appearance. Some folks have been waiting for 30+ shows before they get to play.
It's quite a boring show really because there's no skill involved at all. It's mainly a question of luck and partly having the nerve to continue if you're lucky enough to have some big value numbers left towards the end.
Thats what I have concluded while watching it, as I wonder when someone will hit the 250k, but like you say its mainly a balls of steel game......
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